Introduction 

Since 2015, many Growth Economies such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia have taken advantage of China’s economic ambitions outside its own borders. By the end of 2019, global economic growth was resurgent, galvanised by hopes of an easing of the trade war between President Trump and Chairman Xi. This optimism prompted an expansion by Southeast Asian Growth Economies of their exports into the global supply chain.

 

Vietnam’s GDP, for example, grew from 4% in 2015 to 7% in 2019 with increasing demands on exports of electronics, clothing and industrial components. This economic growth prompted the emergence of high-rise buildings, expensive resorts and the minting of many new billionaires. By comparison, Indonesia and the Philippines enjoyed an expansion in their commodities exports and a growth in international demand for their staple consumer brands such as Indomee and Jolibee. Economic growth saw higher income, improved infrastructure, expanded healthcare systems and a better standard of living through the period in these countries.

 

However, as is so often the case, there are hidden dangers for countries peaking at the wrong time. A prime example is Malaysia, a Tiger economy, which peaked and fell during the 1997 Asian economic crash. Malaysia was expected to surpass its neighbour Singapore by 2020 from foreign investments by becoming the technological hub of Asia in the late 1990s.

 

However, the Asian growth slow down, which triggered a large flight of foreign investment, crashed the economy overnight. The Malaysian Ringgit devalued by 50%, doubling its debt and interest payments and plunging the economy into a decline from which it has never fully recovered. 

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Unlike the 1997 crash, COVID-19 is an invisible enemy which has caused the global workforce to stay at home to stay alive. Death rates recently surpassed the 100,000 mark but these numbers are only an accurate tally of deaths in developed countries with WHO-approved test kits. Underdeveloped countries have not reported accurate data. Notwithstanding, COVID-19 may hamper or halt the growth these new Tiger economies.

 

The Philippines, under the leadership of President Duterte, may seem to be utilizing disproportionate measures in enforcing the lockdown. However, a “shoot them dead” enforcement policy has been regarded as simply what it takes to keep many of the country’s hand-to-mouth working-class citizens from trying to make a living outside their homesto resist the inevitable slide back into poverty. Vietnam, on the other hand, has not reported their COVID-19 numbers transparently and home deaths are on the rise. 

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For its part, Indonesia was still allowing religious mass gathering at the peak of Wuhan’s pandemic event. All three countries simply can afford neither a lockdown for too long nor the massive economic stimulus packages which would be required to keep the economic wheels turning. Additionally all three countries have insufficient food reserves to keep their populations fed for any protracted period.